Methodology
How MILOai College ROI turns public data into the numbers on the site — and where we deliberately simplify so a 17-year-old (and their parents) can compare options without pretending we can predict the future.
Plain English: what the break-even chart is doing
The graph adds up your gross pay after college, year by year, and finds the first year that running total covers everything you paid for the degree — including loan interest if you borrow. That’s break-even here: a planning sketch, not a promise.
The government publishes typical net prices, debt, and earnings a few years out for each school and program. Your sliders (scholarship, years in school, debt, loan rate, home state) turn those benchmarks into your version of cost.
The curved earnings line is not a real salary history — it’s a simple path pinned to one real anchor (median earnings about five years out) so the picture doesn’t pretend pay stays flat forever.
Methodology (summary)
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Break-even & ROI chart — Your inputs (aid, debt, interest), net price, and the 5-year median earnings from College Scorecard. The 20-year earnings curve is modeled from that single figure.
Income isn’t assumed flat:
- Years 1–5: salary ramps up to the typical 5-year median earnings level
- Years 6–20: grows ~2.5% per year (normal raises)
Break-even is where modeled cumulative earnings cross lifetime cost (net tuition after aid, years in school, and loan interest).
- Cost of the dream — Star one school as your Dream school. The tool compares it to the lowest lifetime net cost among your other selected schools, using the same aid, years, debt, loan rate, and home state for every school.
- Jobs & AI — Major-level outlook categories (Declining, At Risk, Transitioning, Augmented, Growing) from an interpretive read of the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs 2025. A planning signal about broad trends — not a guarantee about any one job, salary, or school.
Jobs & AI category definitions
Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025. MILOai College ROI’s categories are an interpretive mapping to majors — not endorsed by WEF.
Role explicitly identified by WEF as fastest-declining. Primary driver is AI or automation displacing the core function of the job.
Career note: Re-skilling strongly advised. Consider pivoting to adjacent growing roles early in career planning.
Role has high task automation exposure. Significant displacement likely by 2030, but some human elements persist in specialized contexts.
Career note: Supplementary technical or interpersonal skills critical. Monitor sector evolution closely.
Role is being reshaped by AI. Some tasks will automate, but adjacent or new sub-roles are emerging within the field.
Career note: Adapt by developing AI-complementary skills. Focus on strategic, creative, and relational aspects of the role.
Role is significantly AI-exposed but AI functions as a tool that enhances the worker rather than replacing them. Human judgment directs the AI.
Career note: Embrace AI tools as core competency. Workers who leverage AI well will significantly outperform those who don’t.
Role projected to grow by 2030. Dominated by human judgment, physical presence, interpersonal skills, or creative complexity that resists automation.
Career note: Strong long-term outlook. Build depth in domain expertise and human-centered skills.
When data is missing or misleading
College Scorecard sometimes suppresses medians. A literal $0 often means not published, not “free.” MILOai College ROI handles common cases like this:
| Situation | What MILOai College ROI does |
|---|---|
| Median debt not published | Shows “Not reported” — no fake $0 debt or ratio |
| No usable earnings anchor | Break-even shows “Not estimated”; chart uses a placeholder curve |
| Out-of-state price gaps (public school) | Falls back with a note that cost is directional, not exact |
| Dream comparison school lacks earnings | Cost gap still shown; earnings premium tile shows a data-gap state |
Data sources
School identity, program-level net price, median debt, 5-year earnings, and published cost of attendance are built from the U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard and NCES (IPEDS).
Snapshot: March 2026, College Scorecard Most Recent Cohorts (release bundle March 23, 2026).
Macro charts — Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed, BLS, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
What this model is not
- Not an admissions predictor
- Not a guarantee of any individual outcome
- Not a forecast of future earnings or AI impact
- Not a substitute for fit, health, or family context
Privacy
No cookies for advertising, no cross-site tracking, and no personal information is collected. Aggregate product use may be collected to improve the site.
Contact
ilomilo1442@gmail.com